Live
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
YES 16%
NO 84%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YES 49%
NO 51%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
YES 19%
NO 81%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 12?
YES 3%
NO 97%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
YES 21%
NO 79%
Fed rate hike in 2026?
YES 87%
NO 13%
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What the world is betting on right now
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
71%
NO
YES
30%
NO
71%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
53%
YES
YES
53%
NO
48%
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
71%
YES
YES
71%
NO
30%
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
52%
NO
YES
49%
NO
52%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
51%
NO
YES
50%
NO
51%